A slightly delayed October roundup as we take stock on recent political decisions & the potential impact on the global economy.
This month's Last Word is by Giles Johnson, Managing Director of CIL Management Consultants
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This month's Last Word is by Giles Johnson, Managing Director of CIL Management Consultants.
More people, more illnesses, more treatments but no more money, staff or buildings. The demand over-hang across the UK’s health and social care economy seems to be back where it was when New Labour came to power to the chorus ‘Things Can Only Get Better’ in 1997. In his 2002 budget, Gordon Brown started a prolonged period of investment in the NHS and, given that the fiscal cycle lags the economic cycle, the weight of investment carried us a long way – to very recently. The debate at the time was around the % of GDP the UK spends on healthcare relative to comparators. That metric is slipping again.
Investing into a sector where there is more demand than supply is a good investment formula. As long as that excess demand can be funded. And there’s the rub. In the words of Liam Byrne as Labour slipped out of office 13 years later “I’m afraid there is no money – good luck”. So now the country has to adjust to a more openly mixed healthcare economy, not just in terms of supply, but in terms of funding.
Brexit and Trump are keeping an honest debate about this, about the rationing of publicly funded services, off the front pages. It’s a continuous and rather boring story anyway. Productivity as a solution? Prison officers have had enough of that. So have head teachers and junior doctors. Nurses increasingly prefer to work through agencies. Let’s give STP’s a go, reconfiguring what we have. Meanwhile private capital sponsors the introduction of new treatments such as proton beam therapy.
Independent sector businesses and their investors should be clear about the part they play in this wider narrative. Solving systemic inefficiencies is fine as long as at least some of the gain is passed back to the customer. There is plenty to go for there and little by way of capex to refresh state-owned capacity. But developing mixed funding streams seems a more enduring source of growth. What is wrong with citizens buying healthcare anyway? Or topping up and upgrading? We can buy and top-up so much else. I think I know what Liam Byrne would say. At least he was honest.
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